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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: Will the emerging market continue? The Bank of Japan will discuss the reduction in bond purchases." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 16, during the Asian market on Monday, spot gold opened up, and once hit $3,450 per barrel at the beginning of the session, as geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensified after Israel launched an attack on Iranian energy facilities over the weekend; oil prices also rose sharply at the opening, U.S. crude oil opened more than 5% higher, once hit $77.49 per barrel due to market concerns about supply and concerns that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Trump said that the United States will continue to support Israel's defensive actions.
Last Friday, Israel launched violent air strikes on Iran, attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories and killing a large number of military www.barborka.infomanders. Iran's national news agency Iran reported that in retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel.
Israel's main ally, U.S. President Trump urged Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, suggesting Tehran rejected the U.S. ultimatum in negotiations to restrict uranium enrichment, and was blamed for the attack.
Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis InvestmentManagers in Boston, said, "Historically, the market will react subconsciously in the face of such geopolitical events, and history tells us that we should often ignore such events. There are several things worth highlighting. How long will this action last? Obviously, the longer it lasts, the more severe the impact of confidence will be, and ultimately putting pressure on the market."
In the context of the Middle East conflict, investors have basically ignored data on the first rebound in U.S. consumer confidence in June. The consumer confidence index jumped to 60.5 this month, surpassing Reuters' www.barborka.infoments, according to a data released by the University of Michigan Consumer Survey last Friday.Economists' investigation expectation.
Monex's Perez said: "The problems we face this year have hit the market's confidence in the US dollar, and it is very difficult to solve them one by one. But at the same time, in the event of military or armed conflicts, there seems to be a consensus around the world: the safest asset in history - the US dollar as a safe haven currency and gold as a safe haven www.barborka.infomodity."
China's latest economic data in May painted a mixed picture. Industrial production grew by 5.8% year-on-year, lower than expected by 6.0%, reflecting the continued weakness of external demand. Previously, despite some tariffs lifted in mid-May, exports to the United States fell sharply year-on-year -34.5%. However, the full impact of tariff reduction is expected to be more obvious in June.
In contrast, retail sales were a highlight, up 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the 5.0% expectation. The government has supported the rebound by actively promoting consumer spending through its appliances and car trade-in programs. The Ministry of www.barborka.infomerce reported that the event has generated sales of more than 1.1m this year.
However, fixed asset investment remains a drag factor, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.7% year-on-year, www.barborka.infopared with an expected 3.9%. Real estate investment continued to be weak, down 10.7% in the first five months of this year, highlighting the continued pressure on the real estate industry.
New Zealand's service industry fell sharply in May, with the BusinessNZ service performance index plummeting from 48.1 to 44.0, the lowest level since June 2024. Activity and new orders led the decline, falling from 46.7 and 50.2 to 40.1 and 43.2, respectively, as www.barborka.infopanies reported widespread weak demand. The number of employed people also fell slightly from 47.9 to 47.2.
The local emotions paint an equally harsh picture. Respondents' negative www.barborka.infoments rose to 65.6% from 61.8% in April. Businesses say there are lower consumer spending, lower incomes and increased uncertainty over inflation, interest rates and economic outlook. Many clients report that clients are delaying decisions and becoming more cautious in spending, reflecting typical trends during times of economic stress.
BNZ senior economist Doug Steel pointed out that the PSI plunge followed an earlier decline in the manufacturing performance index, strengthening signs of general fragility in the economy. With both key industries now shrinking, there is growing concern that New Zealand may “return to recession”.
European zone trade data for April showed signs of weakening external demand, with www.barborka.infomodity exports falling -1.4% year-on-year to 243.0B euros, while imports rose slightly by 0.1% year-on-year to 233.1B euros. Despite the decline in exports, the region maintained a trade surplus of 9.9B, aided by weak import growth. Internal trade in the euro zone also declined, down -2.0% year-on-year to 217.3B euros.
Over the whole of EuropeThe trade situation reflects similar pressures. EU exports fell -1.9% year-on-year to 218.2B euros, while imports rose 0.5% year-on-year to 210.7B euros, with a surplus of 7.4B euros. Internal EU trade fell -1.7% year-on-year to 341.9B euros.
Although exports to the United States are still a highlight, up 3.8% year-on-year, exports to China plummeted -15.9% year-on-year. In terms of imports, the EU's purchase volume from China increased by 8.4% year-on-year. Imports from the United States increased slightly by 2.4% year-on-year.
Eurozone's industrial production fell sharply in April -2.4% month-on-month, far lower than expected -1.6%. Output in all major categories decreased, with non-durable consumer goods falling the most at -3.0%. Capital goods, energy (-1.1%) and intermediate products (-0.7%) also showed contraction. Durable consumer goods fell slightly by -0.2%, with little relief in the otherwise bleak report.
At the EU level, driven by sharp declines in Ireland (-15.2%), Malta (-6.2%) and Lithuania (-3.0%), industrial output fell by -1.8% month-on-month. Although a few economies such as Denmark (+3.5%) and Luxembourg (+3.2%) achieved slight growth, the situation in the region remains weak.
Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iraq-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with an unprecedented scale." Iran should reach an agreement.
According to AXIOS: A senior U.S. official confirmed that over the weekend, Israel had a chance to eliminate Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei, but Trump made it clear to www.barborka.infoanyahu that he opposed the action.
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